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What Numbers to Choose for My Lottery Ticket? Behavior Anomalies in the Chinese Online Lottery Market

机译:我的彩票可以选择哪些号码?中国在线彩票市场的行为异常

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摘要

The Chinese Online Lottery provides field evidence of three anomalies. The first anomaly, which has previously not been documented when there is a financial incentive to overcome, is the guidance effect. Since the target game in this project is a pari-mutuel game, which means people will share the jackpot with other winners, the best strategy should be to choose the least popular numbers among others – information that people could obtain on the webpage. However, to my surprise, instead of doing so, people would choose the most popular numbers among others. The second anomaly tested is the gambler’s fallacy. Although it is proved that the gambler’s fallacy does exist, the influence lasts only three days, which is much shorter than prior research. Furthermore, the dataset’s availability makes it possible to show how the two fallacies unfold over time within a round. This was unlikely before the phenomenon of online betting. The result demonstrates that later entrants are subject to more fallacies than earlier ones. Finally, the paper adds to the evidence showing the additional, culturally contingent pull of special numbers. In China, bettors prefer to choose the lucky number 8, even it won the game in prior rounds, but they are reluctant to choose the unlucky number 14 even it has not been picked for a long while.
机译:中国在线彩票提供了三个异常的现场证据。引导效果是第一个异常,以前没有在有经济诱因要克服的情况下进行记录的。由于此项目中的目标游戏是同等游戏,这意味着人们将与其他获胜者分享头奖,因此最佳策略应该是选择其他人中人气最低的号码-人们可以在网页上获得的信息。但是,令我惊讶的是,人们会选择其中最受欢迎的数字,而不是这样做。测试的第二个异常是赌徒的谬误。尽管已证明赌徒的谬论确实存在,但影响仅持续三天,比以前的研究要短得多。此外,数据集的可用性还可以显示这两个谬误在一个回合中如何随时间变化。在出现在线博彩现象之前,这是不太可能的。结果表明,与较早参加者相比,较晚参加者遭受的谬论更多。最后,本文增加了证据,显示了特殊数字在文化上的附加影响。在中国,投注者更喜欢选择幸运数字8,即使它在之前的回合中赢得了比赛,但他们也不愿选择不幸的数字14,即使它已经很久没有被挑选了。

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    Ding, J.;

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  • 年度 2011
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